Dot Product

Well, another year spent. Remember when 200x was the “FUTURE!”? Where are my flying cars? No, that Moller fellow that has graced Popular Mechanics since at least the late 80’s does not count! The future is not all it’s cracked up to be. Some predictions from 2005 based on our currently ballistic trajectory through 2004:

+ The economy will continue it’s zero-growth turbulence, with massive job losses in textiles (well, what jobs are left there), and information technology (unless you live in Bangalore). Look for further slippage of the dollar as deficeit spending and the dollar-pegged Yuan pull us further under. Don’t bother looking for any legitimate effort from the government to fix this problem.

+ The rise of patent portfolio management companies, usually run by IP lawyers. These outfits are going to be the hot thing for 2005 as they purchase patents from dot-bombs and other floudering companies and then turn around and extort cash from potential infringers. Just because SCO is run by a bunch of inept losers doesn’t mean this model won’t work. Sad, but true.

+ Gas is in the $2 range to stay. Get over it. They’re paying over $6/gallon in the UK. Hybrids will be the hot thing in automotive this year. Sadly, Volksvagen won’t have a clue that a turbodiesel minivan that gets 30mpg would be a smash-hit in the US, especially if it didn’t look like a modified delivery van.

+ Iraq will have its elections at the end of January, come hell or high water. “You have to go to the polls with the electorate you have, not the electorate you might like to have.” Will the Iraqi people get the government they want? No, but then again nobody does…

+ China will become the dominant world economic power. They already are for most of the Asia pacific region. The only thing that is going to hold them back is the Chinese government itself. Why shouldn’t it be this way… they’ve got 1/4 of the world population, they’re hard-working, and industrious? If China didn’t fall into isolationism in the 1400’s, they’d already own the planet.

That’s the big stuff, I think. Any other predictions out there?